Essentially a rally that's longer than e.g. 3 days. I'm not looking for a short term bounce. Looking for a rally that can last e.g. 2 weeks - 2 months. How long the rally goes, depends on the magnitude of the rally.
Can be a sharp rally that ends in 2 weeks. Or could be a slow rally that takes 2 months.
Many thanks for the report, useful and interesting as usual. As an EU-based investor and trader I would appreciate your view on European equities very much! The trade-off between equities (priced in USD) up and dollar down begins to matter for Euro portfolios...
I don't follow European equities in depth, so my opinion here probably isn't worth much. With that being said, a couple of general thoughts:
Generally speaking, a rising tide lifts all boats. With U.S. equities as the 800 pound gorilla (accounting for >2/3 of global market cap), a rally in U.S. equities is probably a bullish factor for European equities.
Of course, priced in USD, if the USD pulls back then that would be bullish for European equities as well. But priced in terms of the Euro, this becomes a non-factor.
Long term speaking, I am not very bullish on European equities. Nor am I bearish. It is entirely possible for European stocks to swing sideways for years. At the end of the day, the stock market is a market of stocks, and particularly it is a market of large cap stocks. So the question becomes, what will be the main sectors/industries that drive European equities higher for the long run? In other words, which sectors/industries will experience consistent earnings growth?
I don't have an answer for that regarding Europe. This is just my world view:
1. The U.S. has the benefit of dominating the tech industry.
2. China used to dominate the manufacturing sector, but this will probably slip away towards India (and somewhat to Southeast Asia)
3. India has 3 main drivers: services offshoring, manufacturing, and foreign remittances (i.e. Indians living abroad, sending $$ back home).
Again, take my thoughts with a grain of salt. I don't look at European equities a whole lot.
Hello! Can you explain what a “multi-week” means in this context?
Thks!!!
Hi Julio,
Essentially a rally that's longer than e.g. 3 days. I'm not looking for a short term bounce. Looking for a rally that can last e.g. 2 weeks - 2 months. How long the rally goes, depends on the magnitude of the rally.
Can be a sharp rally that ends in 2 weeks. Or could be a slow rally that takes 2 months.
Many thanks for the report, useful and interesting as usual. As an EU-based investor and trader I would appreciate your view on European equities very much! The trade-off between equities (priced in USD) up and dollar down begins to matter for Euro portfolios...
I don't follow European equities in depth, so my opinion here probably isn't worth much. With that being said, a couple of general thoughts:
Generally speaking, a rising tide lifts all boats. With U.S. equities as the 800 pound gorilla (accounting for >2/3 of global market cap), a rally in U.S. equities is probably a bullish factor for European equities.
Of course, priced in USD, if the USD pulls back then that would be bullish for European equities as well. But priced in terms of the Euro, this becomes a non-factor.
Long term speaking, I am not very bullish on European equities. Nor am I bearish. It is entirely possible for European stocks to swing sideways for years. At the end of the day, the stock market is a market of stocks, and particularly it is a market of large cap stocks. So the question becomes, what will be the main sectors/industries that drive European equities higher for the long run? In other words, which sectors/industries will experience consistent earnings growth?
I don't have an answer for that regarding Europe. This is just my world view:
1. The U.S. has the benefit of dominating the tech industry.
2. China used to dominate the manufacturing sector, but this will probably slip away towards India (and somewhat to Southeast Asia)
3. India has 3 main drivers: services offshoring, manufacturing, and foreign remittances (i.e. Indians living abroad, sending $$ back home).
Again, take my thoughts with a grain of salt. I don't look at European equities a whole lot.